“Computer Geek And Ex-Footballer Crack

Football Betting Code”

Football experts develop machine which churns out WINNING Bets 24/7…

Dave Nevis & Gavin Summerland: They wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at football betting. Close to £250,000 later, the story is told for the first time.

By

Paul Braemer

5 August 2018, 10:00 BST

Betting is something like a religion in Hong Kong, where citizens bet more than anyone else on Earth. Their cathedral is Happy Valley Racecourse, whose grassy oval track and floodlit stands are ringed at night by one of the sport’s grandest views: neon skyscrapers and neat stacks of high-rises, a constellation of illuminated windows, and beyond them, lush hills silhouetted in darkness.

Happy Valley Race Course – 2015

On the evening of Nov. 6, 2015, Gavin Summerland was sitting in the Felix, Salisbury Road ordering a cold beer. When he ordered in a loud English accent the guy standing next to him said ‘English and Mancunian, right or wrong?’ Dave Nevis was right, he had lived in Salford Quays all his life and could recognise a Manchester accent well enough.

Around the busy bar, young women passed foamy pitchers to laughing expats, while the local Chinese, for whom gambling is a more serious affair, clutched racing newspapers and leaned over the tables. ‘What are you doing in Hong Kong’ said Gavin Summerland.

‘At the moment I’m working out which teams are going to win in a 10 leg football accumulator bet I’m working on’ said Dave.

‘Know anything about football? by the way my name is Dave and I’m pleased to meet you’.

‘Likewise, I’m Gavin or Gav for short’ was the reply. ‘Do I know about football?’

Gav went on

‘Well put it this way I had a trial for Manchester City 20 years ago and I have got £125 on Chelsea to beat Stoke in the Premier League tomorrow’

Dave stepped back and said ‘A man that likes to have a decent sized football punt, we are going to get on fine and boy, do I have something you might be interested in hearing about!’ Dave was a computer expert trained at IBM and he knew a lot about betting.

In fact he knew things about Football Betting that absolutely no one else knew.

Gavin ordered another beer and said ‘Dave, don’t spill the drink, but could you possibly spill the beans?’

Discussion Over A Beer

Hong Kong is 7 hours in front of UK time and Dave picked up his smart phone, while the TV covering Happy Valley racing blared “It’s Mascot Treasure a length in front, but Bobo Duck is gunning him down,” said the announcer, voice rising. “Bobo Duck in front. Mascot fighting back!” Two Chinese roared as the riders raced across the finish line. Bobo Duck edged Mascot Treasure, and Frat Rat came in third.

Just as the Chinese men stopped shouting, Dave began to reveal more of his ideas and what he had spent every day of the last 730 days perfecting. Gav figured he better slow down the drinking in case he misheard anything, as the numbers and figures started to roll around his ears and head. Across the road was Dave’s office, they headed there to see the betting system in action.

Across the road from the Felix Bar, 27 floors up, Dave Nevis had a plush office. Inside, the only sound was the hum of a dozen computers and 3 huge TV screens. Dave motioned to Gav to sit down and they both stared on a bank of three monitors, which displayed a matrix of percentages the algorithm had made for the football bets in Dave’s 10 leg accumulator — 96,222 in all.

Gav watched as a software script filtered out the weakest percentages, one at a time, until there were 10 lines left on the screens. Thirty-five bets had won that week and Dave was not interested in qualifying for a consolation prize.

The 10 leg football bet accumulator would net Dave Nevis £86,517.

Dave picked up his phone and said ‘Nottingham Forest 1 – Derby 0’

“Oh my, my” Nevis said. “I have hit it”

It wasn’t immediately clear how much had been made in the 10 leg accumulator, so Dave attempted some back-of-the-envelope math until the official figure flashed on his monitor screen minutes later. Dave Nevis had made over £86,000 and counted the zeros just to make sure, then turned to Summerland and said’

‘Gav would you like to hear about how to make betting on football pay very big time indeed? Your £125 on the Chelsea match, might be better spent you know’

The sportswriter Ron Powell once called sports betting “animated roulette.” “If you bet on football you will struggle to make it pay” says Sam Worrell, who runs Global Betting & Gaming Consultants.

What if that wasn’t true? What if someone had masterminded a system that guaranteed a profit? One person who’d literally made 10’s of thousands of pounds, and who’d never told his story—until now?

Dave Nevis and Gav Summerland decided to join forces. Gav still had loads of contacts from being on the books of one of the big Manchester Clubs and they got along real well. This could only help.

In September, after a long campaign to reach him through friends and colleagues, I received an email from Dave Nevis. “I have been avoiding you, as you might have gathered’ he wrote. “The reason is mainly that I am uncomfortable in the spotlight by nature.” He added, “None of us want to encourage more people to get into the betting game!”

But in October he agreed to a series of interviews in the new Manchester office, he and Gav now worked from.

Dave looks like a university professor, his wavy hair and streaked beard, and speaks in a soft voice.

He told me he’d been driven only partly by money—and I believed him.

With his intelligence, he probably could have gotten richer faster, working in financial investments.

Nevis wanted to conquer football betting not because it was hard, but because it was said to be impossible.

Dave Nevis

Only one thing Nevis ever told me turned out to be untrue. ‘What I have done anyone can do’.

In truth he needed Gav and his street wise punter experience, to sort out the Football Predictor interface in a way that could be used by even a beginner to betting.

Every day both Dave & Gav would sit at the computer and TV screens studying the data, form and read outs. Early on, the betting program Nevis had written spat out bizarre predictions, and Summerland, with his head start studying betting from a footballers perspective, would correct them.

They used a telephone account at all the leading exchanges in Hong Kong to call in their bets and watched many of the matches on TV. When they won, there were satisfied smiles only. They were professionals; cheering and hooting were for rubes.
Between matches, Nevis struggled to make his algorithms stay ahead of the type of statistical phenomenons that arise with so much data and it got complex.

They needed to zone in on and perfect certain types of bet, then present them in a way that was easy to understand.

Gav Summerland

One approach—familiar to Summerland from his poker playing days in London,—was to adapt the work of a gunslinging Texas physicist named John Kelly Jr., who’d studied the problem in the 1950s. Kelly imagined a scenario in which a gambler has an edge: a “private wire” of fairly reliable tips. How should he bet? Wager too little, and the advantage is squandered. Too much, and ruin beckons. (Remember, the tips are good but not perfect.)

Summerlands solution was to wager an amount in line with the gambler’s confidence in the tip or in this case, the computers confidence in the algorithms for each match.

This simplified the whole process and Gav presented Dave with a hand drafted version of what would simplify every element of the betting process. Then Dave spent a month and approximately 200 hours building it.

So the trouble with the software was that only Nevis could interpret and understand the results. Gav wanted to make it so anyone could access a system which had exactly the same fundamentals of Dave’s original software.

The Football Predictor was born.

A closed group of people have been testing the newly created Football Predictor system built with the same algorithms as Nevis’ original software but with the easy understandable interface as requested by Summerland. The Feedback has been incredible…

Feedback

We get members write to us all the time, this is just a selection from our inbox

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